Tropical Storm PAUL (22P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Australia
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% currently
        probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.